Global Development: Intermediate Topics in Politics, Policy, and Data
PSCI 3200 - Spring 2025
Agenda
Democracy and Development
What is this plot showing?
Two explanations
Causal
Correlational
Development causes democracy
Modernization Theory
Democracy Spurs Development
Democracy and Development in Research
The theoretical links btw democracy and development have permeated micro-development research
Resource booms and democracy - Windfalls do not improve democratic quality but might make autocracies sturdier
Corruption and Development - - Horizontal accountability random audits of Brazilian majors reduce reelection of corrupt politicians
Female participation and development - Looks at random gender quotas in India. Having a female local politician improves development outcomes for female
Democratic quality and deforestation - Democratic competition increases deforestation!
All these literatures borrow from modernization theory
Acemoglu et. al. 2008
The criticism: correlation of democracy and development does not mean causation
Alternative: Countries embark on divergent development paths
Empirical implication: Observed association is correlational
Which is the correct DAG?
How to decide?
We need to control for U
Impossible
We can control for everything
Simpson Paradox
Fixed effects
Simple idea: control for “belonging to a group” using group-level Fixed Effects
A way to control for every unobserved group characteristic that does not change